An Urgent Call for an EU Action Plan to Tackle the Challenges of Europe’s Ageing Population, by Giles Merritt

While making predictions can be precarious today, it’s reasonable to assert that Ursula von der Leyen will leave a significant impact when she steps down in late 2029 after a decade as president of the EU’s executive commission. However, she will also pass on a challenging legacy.

The aging demographic in Europe presents an urgent issue, and the European Commission has been notably inactive in addressing it.

The rationale provided is that the measures necessary to mitigate the effects of aging and manage its rising costs are predominantly national responsibilities, lying with individual member governments.

This argument is weak, particularly because one of the most critical dangers of demographic decline is the disproportionate effect it has on the EU’s newer member states in Central and Eastern Europe, potentially fracturing the Union despite the economic integration efforts of the last two decades.

By mid-century, half of all Europeans will be over the age of 65, and by 2100, this figure could reach nearly two-thirds.

The extent of the aging issue is starkly highlighted when considered alongside Von der Leyen’s planned tenure in office.

At her arrival in Brussels, a third of the EU’s population was over 65, and when she was reappointed last year, that percentage had increased to 35%.

It is expected to be nearly 42% when she vacates her role, at which point she will be 72 herself.

The magnitude of the aging issue is particularly framed by Von der Leyen’s decade in office.

When she assumed her post, one-third of the EU’s population was over 65 years of age, which rose to 35% upon her reappointment last year.

This figure will approach 42% by the time she leaves, and she will herself be 72 by then.

By mid-century, half of all Europeans will be over 65, and nearly two-thirds by 2100.

The decline of the EU’s labor force is a disturbing prospect, which seems to have ignited similar reactions among Europe’s political leaders.

The selection of a woman to lead the EU executive, particularly one who had not first held a prime ministerial role, raised eyebrows both within Europe and beyond.

Nevertheless, Von der Leyen is arguably the first commission president whose communication skills have catapulted her into global recognition.

Her management of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis garnered praise, and her handling of day-to-day policy matters has been competent.

Nonetheless, a significant gap in her agenda is the demographic shifts, which, while still in the initial phases, are rapidly gaining traction.

What is clearly needed is for the commission to unite member states under the EU banner to synchronize their approaches to aging.

Two members of the Brussels commission incorporate age-related duties within their responsibilities – Croatia’s Dubravka Suica oversees demography as part of her Mediterranean brief, while Malta’s Glenn Micallef includes “intergenerational fairness” alongside youth initiatives and sports.

Sadly, neither has the resources or a directorate-general to suggest that concrete EU policy initiatives are forthcoming.

What is evidently required is for the commission to unify member states behind the EU’s banner for a coordinated response to the aging crisis.

There’s a range of proactive measures all 27 countries should be implementing, and Brussels must escalate its efforts to support EU governments in introducing often-neglected policies.

Cost estimates associated with aging differ across nations, yet can be encapsulated by the EU’s dependency ratio – the ratio of working-age individuals to retirees.

The average ratio over the last century was a healthy four tax-paying workers for each pensioner. By the time of Ursula von der Leyen’s appointment in 2019, it had declined to 2.9:1, and is projected to drop to 2:1 by 2050, with an unsustainable 1.7:1 expected by 2070.

There are ten areas where national policies within the EU need to be much better aligned.

These would showcase best practices and encourage a shift from longstanding convergence policies like infrastructural support for less affluent countries toward focusing on demographic challenges.

Healthcare, especially for the elderly, is skyrocketing in costs and will soon necessitate a comprehensive Europe-wide reevaluation.

Additionally, policies aimed at countering falling fertility rates must be addressed, covering aspects such as housing, childcare, low-wage employment, tax incentives for younger people, and revamping both public and private pension systems.

Immigration policies should also be included; a shift from rigid “Fortress Europe” policies to a more welcoming approach for newcomers is essential to manage aging effectively.

A practical first step for the commission could involve adopting methods created for its own green initiative.

Europe’s carbon footprint color-coding could be modified to provide a quick visual assessment of how well each member state is preparing for aging.

What’s needed from the Brussels executive is the same energy and determination it showed 40 years ago in advocating for the Single Market against resistance from some more protectionist member states.

The European Union won’t regain its former vitality if it allows itself to descend quietly into senescence.

Ursula von der Leyen must broaden her agenda with an Action Plan aimed at re-evaluating and revitalizing the policy areas critical to Europe’s future.

*The views expressed in this Frankly Speaking op-ed belong solely to the author and do not represent Friends of Europe.

*This article initially appeared on the Friends of Europe website and is reproduced with permission.

*The views expressed by the author of this article, Giles Merritt, do not necessarily reflect those of The Bulrushes.

*Join the conversation! Friends of Europe will host the launch of Giles Merritt’s new book, “Timebomb: When Ageing Explodes,” on June 10 from 13:00 to 14:30 at its premises at 5-6 Square de Meeûs. All registered attendees are invited to engage in the debate on the issues raised in the book. Register here.