Is Your Business Prepared to Embrace Uncertainty?
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SIMON BROWN: I’m here with Christie Viljoen, Senior Economist at PwC South Africa. Thanks for your time, Christie. A recent Megatrends Report from PwC highlights several intriguing insights. One significant point is your discussion on global uncertainty hitting unprecedented levels, which we can partially attribute to the actions of the U.S. administration regarding tariffs.
However, the issue extends beyond tariffs. Factors like AI and climate change contribute to this increased uncertainty.
CHRISTIE VILJOEN: Absolutely. Currently, political events—especially those involving the U.S.—dominate the news cycle, particularly concerning tariffs that directly affect South Africa. But these tariffs are only a piece of the larger picture. These ‘megatrends’ represent the key forces shaping our society—long-term factors that are driving change. Some are well-known, such as political developments and climate change, frequently highlighted in analyses and warnings, alongside technological advancements.
AI is currently a major player, but we must also consider demographic shifts, social stability, and in South Africa’s case, instability. These variables collectively contribute to an environment where our understanding of both current and future landscapes is increasingly unpredictable.
SIMON BROWN: Exactly. This uncertainty is alarming, especially for policymakers and businesses.
Yet, in this complex environment lies potential. While it might sound cliché, the ability to adapt and leverage uncertainty can lead to improved outcomes.
CHRISTIE VILJOEN: That’s correct. Look at the most successful investors and entrepreneurs—they often start with innovative or adapted ideas in response to market changes and disruptions that accompany uncertainty.
In the South African context, for example, the tariffs enforced by the U.S. are pressuring our export-dependent companies. Many are exploring alternative markets and opportunities, which is valid. However, it necessitates a reevaluation of how we generate export value, who our target markets are, how we deliver products, and how we can reshape industries to capitalize on these opportunities. It’s the age-old adage: when one door closes, another opens.
SIMON BROWN: You’ve worked with your colleagues at PwC to simulate potential policy responses, projecting an impressive R188 billion increase in exports by 2030. That’s significant, yet not necessarily straightforward. How crucial is the role of public-private partnerships in this scenario?
CHRISTIE VILJOEN: Our simulation illustrates that the global landscape is changing and our primary trading partners are adopting different policies in response to evolving trade, climate, and technological landscapes. We must seize these opportunities.
For instance, Asian nations venturing into green technology show a growing demand for platinum and similar metals—products we export. There’s real potential there.
Your question regarding public versus private collaboration is vital. Both sectors must work together. The public sector brings political and technical connections, whereas the private sector focuses on production and exports. It’s a combined effort.
Since the onset of Covid-19, we’ve observed enhanced collaboration between government and the private sector, which must evolve by 2025 into strategies on how South Africa can increase its global goods distribution and generate jobs.
SIMON BROWN: You mentioned the hydrogen economy, which boosts demand for PGMs—where South Africa holds a significant advantage. While some benefits will take time, others can manifest quite quickly.
CHRISTIE VILJOEN: Indeed, global market trends are pivotal. As exporters, we must be adaptable. Over the past year, trade regulations have shifted rapidly—not only in the U.S. but also in Europe, Turkey, India, and China. Each nation is prioritizing its economic development and growth, which involves trade and investment with others.
Consequently, it requires South Africans—positioned at the southern tip of the continent, with markets often far away—to remain vigilant about global developments. Technology, for instance, is evolving at a rapid pace, and we must keep pace.
This is a crucial moment for us to expand our understanding of the global market to capitalize on potential opportunities.
SIMON BROWN: I appreciate that term you’ve used—’agile to change.’ This isn’t new for our business leaders. Effective businesses embrace change. A prime example is Checkers Sixty60, which constantly evolves—this is central to good business practice.
CHRISTIE VILJOEN: That’s right. In any industry, there will always be a few leaders in innovation, while others may lag behind in adapting effectively. This highlights the need for change, innovation, and agility. It necessitates collaboration among business leaders, companies, and stakeholders to seize opportunities, as the risk of falling behind is significant.
In this context, other nations and their companies will identify opportunities first and may quickly dominate markets, potentially brushing off South African products with a simple, ‘Thanks, we’re okay right now.’
SIMON BROWN: Exactly. If we don’t act, rest assured others will, and we must be ahead in the race.
Thank you, Christie Viljoen, Senior Economist at PwC South Africa, for your valuable insights.
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