XRP Price Steady at $1 as Whale Inflows Reach 2021 Low: Is a Rebound on the Horizon?

The price of XRP has stabilized around $1, as whale transfers to Binance have dropped to their lowest level since 2021. However, ongoing weak demand and bearish chart indicators continue to hinder any potential recovery.

XRP price continues to face pressure around $1

According to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, the three-month average of XRP whale transfers to Binance has plummeted to around $61 million, marking its lowest level since 2021.

Previously, the figure was $456 million in January 2025 and $355 million in October 2025. The current transfer levels are reported to be six to eight times lower than last year’s peaks, as noted by the analyst.

The decline in exchange deposits typically suggests fewer tokens are readily available for sale. Darkfost characterized this downturn as a positive sign for XRP, but cautioned that reduced selling activity alone cannot guarantee a bullish reversal.

Despite this, net flows remain positive, averaging approximately $18.8 million, indicating that larger deposits still surpass withdrawals. Darkfost also mentioned that this trend aligns with a broader market decline in both exchange inflows and trading volume, revealing that selling pressure is lessening, though demand has not yet fully rebounded.

As of the time of writing, XRP was trading around $1.00, stable over the past 24 hours but down by about 3.2% for the week. The token boasts a market cap of around $62.8 billion and a daily trading volume nearing $900 million.

XRP has fluctuated above and below the $1 mark since August 11, with the most recent dip hitting around $0.988 before buyers entered the market; however, the rebound was capped at approximately $1.01.

Daily XRP chart indicates sellers’ dominance

The daily chart highlights XRP trading below the 20-day Bollinger Bands’ middle line located at $1.0446. Remaining beneath this average suggests a bearish short-term trend, despite the price nearing the lower band at $0.9866.

The daily relative strength index is at 36.02, below its average signal of 39.21. This indicates weak momentum but remains above the typical oversold threshold of 30, allowing for the possibility of further decline before reaching an extreme.

A close below the $0.9866 lower Bollinger Band could undermine the $1 support level and bring attention to the $0.95 region. The chart lacks a definitive daily reversal pattern, with XRP continuing to make lower highs and lower lows since its peak in May.

For any potential recovery, buyers must first reclaim the Bollinger middle line near $1.045. If the price successfully closes above this level with increased trading activity, the next target would be the upper band at $1.1025.

The small gap between the current price and the lower band also raises the likelihood of a short-term bounce. However, such movement would only be corrective unless XRP manages to break above its declining daily average and maintain that gain.

Falling wedge presents a potential recovery opportunity

On the 4-hour chart, XRP is now within a falling wedge formation created after the July 21 high of around $1.165. The price is nearing the convergence point of the two descending trendlines, increasing the probability of an impending breakout as the trading range contracts.

The first immediate resistance lies at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $1.024. A breakout above the wedge and through this level could pave the way toward $1.055, followed by $1.076.

Higher resistance levels are found near $1.097 and $1.123. XRP must clear these areas before it can challenge the July high of approximately $1.165.

The 4-hour momentum shows some signs of improvement. The MACD line is near minus 0.0054, slightly above the signal line at minus 0.0060, with the histogram turning marginally positive at 0.0006. This crossover indicates a reduction in downside momentum but does not confirm a trend change, as both lines remain below zero.

Chaikin Money Flow is still negative at minus 0.09, suggesting that capital flows continue to favor sellers. A breakout from the wedge, accompanied by CMF crossing above zero, would offer stronger evidence of returning buying interest.

If the breakout does not occur, XRP might revert back toward $0.986. A confirmed 4-hour close below the lower trendline would negate the recovery setup and heighten the risk of a move toward $0.98 or $0.95.

Liquidation map suggests XRP targets beyond $1

According to CoinGlass’s one-week liquidation heatmap, several clusters of leveraged positions are situated above the current price. The nearest liquidity is concentrated around $1.01, followed by larger clusters between $1.02 and $1.03.

The most significant overhead concentrations seem to be around $1.03 and between approximately $1.045 to $1.05. Since price often gravitates toward areas with large leveraged positions, a rebound could gain momentum as short positions are liquidated at these levels.

Additional liquidity below the market is visible near the $0.98 to $0.99 range. Thus, a breach of the $1 level could potentially lead XRP toward this area before buyers have another opportunity to defend the daily lower Bollinger Band.

For U.S. traders operating over the weekend, the thinner liquidity may lead to abrupt price moves around the $1 mark. The charts suggest an immediate downside boundary at $0.986, while a breakthrough above $1.024 would provide initial technical evidence that XRP is attempting to emerge from its month-long decline.

The decrease in Binance whale inflows reduces one potential source of selling pressure. However, both Darkfost’s analysis and the negative daily structure point to the same conclusion: XRP still requires new buying interest before a sustainable recovery can commence.