CryptoQuant Signal Turns Green for the First Time Since March 2023
Analysts report that the CryptoQuant signal has shifted Bitcoin into early bull territory for the first time since March 2023.
Summary
- On May 12, CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator moved into bullish territory, with its Profit and Loss Index confirming a regime shift.
- The last confirmed green signal in March 2023 was followed by a significant bull run, propelling Bitcoin from $20,000 to over $73,000 by April 2024.
- March 2022 stands out as an anomaly, with the indicator briefly turning green before Bitcoin experienced a deeper downtrend into 2023.
According to CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, Bitcoin entered bullish territory on May 12 for the first time since March 2023, suggesting a potential shift away from bear-market behavior. This indicator relies on the Profit and Loss Index, which encompasses the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and a comparison of Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder SOPR ratios.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, mentioned on X that such a shift “often indicates that the worst phase of the correction has already concluded and that market structure is starting to recover.” At the time of the indicator flipping, Bitcoin was priced above $80,000, marking a roughly 35% recovery from February’s lows of $60,000.
Reasons Analysts Are Hesitant to Call a Confirmed Bull Market
The most recent confirmed green reading emerged in March 2023 and persisted until August 2024, during which Bitcoin surged from around $20,000 to an all-time high exceeding $73,000. However, March 2022 is a critical outlier: the indicator briefly turned green that month before Bitcoin’s downtrend continued well into 2023.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the indicator as a tool for identifying regime shifts rather than a predictive guarantee. “Historically, it has proven most beneficial for recognizing when Bitcoin ceases to act like a bear-market asset,” he remarked. There remains a need for sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels before the signal can be deemed validated.
Moreno noted several secondary metrics indicating exhaustion in the current setup. Bitcoin must decisively surpass the $82,000 resistance level, which has thwarted multiple rally attempts, before the signal can be confirmed through price action.
Supporting Data and Perspectives from Hayes
Supporting the regime-shift narrative, April saw ETF inflows into spot Bitcoin products reach $2.44 billion, representing the strongest single-month institutional accumulation since October 2025. Currently, Glassnode’s RHODL ratio stands at 4.5, the third-highest in Bitcoin’s history, with previous comparable readings occurring at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms.
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, contended that Bitcoin already hit its cycle bottom at $60,000 earlier in 2026 and identified $90,000 as the key level at which any rally could surge toward the prior all-time high of $126,000. Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang noted that Bitcoin is “poised for a potential breakout toward $85,000 to $90,000,” pointing to strong institutional backing and continued ETF inflows.