Private Sector Alerts: South Africa’s Foot-and-Mouth Strategy at Risk of Failure
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JEREMY MAGGS: South Africa’s persistent battle against foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is receiving a stark warning from the private sector – the current vaccination plan is likely to be ineffective.
FMD Response South Africa argues that the government’s objective to vaccinate 80% of cattle by December this year is too gradual to realize herd immunity, especially since vaccine effectiveness may diminish after around six months.
The organization asserts that the only effective approach is a swift national campaign to vaccinate the nation’s 14 million cattle within six to eight weeks, significantly involving private sector distribution.
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This issue is becoming increasingly critical regarding food security in South Africa. Joining me now is Andrew Morphew, representing FMD Response South Africa.
Andrew, thank you for being here. Your organization states that the current strategy has a 90% to 95% chance of failing. Can you explain why this plan is mathematically unsound?
ANDREW MORPHEW: Thank you for having me, Jeremy. We currently estimate a 90% to 95% chance of failure. The numbers reveal many variables at play.
Most of these issues arise from execution, including cold chain distribution, vaccination application, and the wildlife-cattle interaction. All these elements are vital.
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However, one key variable truly determines the success or failure of this plan: vaccine timing.
The government aims to vaccinate 80% of South Africa’s cattle by December, effectively covering the national herd in a year. Analyzing this approach, we see where the mathematics falter.
Vaccines provide only six months of immunity, meaning that animals vaccinated in the first month will begin to lose immunity by the sixth month.
This results in immunity diminishing as quickly as it is being established.
Consequently, at any given point, the maximum immunity achieved could be around 35%, while the World Organisation for Animal Health requires 80%.
This gap – between the achievable 35% and the required 80% – is what undermines the entire plan.
JEREMY MAGGS: Andrew, your recommendation is to vaccinate 14 million cattle within six to eight weeks. Is that realistically feasible for the country?
ANDREW MORPHEW: Yes, the country has the capability to execute this plan, Jeremy. Though it’s a significant task, we’re not suggesting it’s simple. Countries like Brazil and Argentina have successfully managed even larger vaccination campaigns.
For instance, Argentina vaccinated 60 million cattle and effectively closed their outbreak by revisiting the vaccination process in six months.
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They successfully halted the spread of foot-and-mouth disease within 11 months. This is achievable in South Africa if we commit to it.
Regarding logistics, Brazil faced challenges far greater than ours, including delivering vaccines to remote areas via air and boats, while managing over 100 million cattle. Their success demonstrates it can be done.
In South Africa, we have evidence of productivity; 34 veterinarians vaccinated 50,000 animals in one day when supplied with vaccines. If we extrapolate that capacity, it is indeed feasible.
Mobilizing the right resources and ensuring vaccines reach the veterinarians swiftly and safely is crucial for success.
JEREMY MAGGS: It appears the Department of Agriculture is keen on maintaining control over vaccine distribution, yet you suggest this is a formula for failure.
ANDREW MORPHEW: Indeed, relying solely on a single supply channel leads to failure. A resilient supply chain must incorporate redundancy; if one supplier fails, alternative sources should be available.
We need a mix of private distribution channels, as veterinarians already maintain operational cold chains, optimizing vaccine handling and minimizing risks.
Listen/read: Private sector involvement is crucial to countering the FMD outbreak, warn farmers.
Furthermore, South Africa’s approach focuses on control, treating it as an administrative dilemma. In contrast, Brazil and Argentina prioritized understanding the disease biology, organizing their vaccination strategies accordingly.
JEREMY MAGGS: Andrew, do you believe farmers are losing confidence in the national response and potentially, in Minister John Steenhuisen?
ANDREW MORPHEW: We seek collaboration with the minister and government to resolve this issue. While we have confidence in the possibility of a solution, the current plan is failing.
Recently, there were two instances of vaccinated dairy herds contracting the virus from unvaccinated neighboring herds, precisely demonstrating our concerns.
Unless we can inundate areas with vaccines and vaccinate every animal, the virus will persist.
We aspire to work alongside the government, confident that through widespread vaccination in strategic phases, we can reclaim control over the situation.
JEREMY MAGGS: Thank you, Andrew Morphew, spokesperson for FMD Response SA, for your insights.