The Emerging Economics of People in an Era of Closed Opportunities

University graduates from India are increasingly facing difficulties in securing employment, a challenge mirrored by scientists in the US and robotics engineers in China. While individuals strive to harness their skills for economic participation, barriers remain that keep workers from accessing job opportunities.

The current economic landscape is largely shaped by international trade disputes. Headlines frequently highlight tensions surrounding immigration, borders, and the rights of newcomers as the world’s leading economic power erects barriers. Often overlooked is the critical role individuals play in fostering prosperity. Economists typically advocate for a growing population, quality education, and strategic placement of talent to maximize its potential.

Globalization has not benefited everyone in recent decades, and heedless adherence to economic advice has its drawbacks. In affluent nations, trade has diminished manufacturing jobs in various regions, while rising living costs have left many feeling stagnant. However, historical evidence suggests that nations effectively harnessing their demographic advantages—whether through local education or immigration—tend to fare better overall.

The demographic equation is becoming more complex. Rapid aging means that China, Japan, and South Korea are witnessing declining populations, with the European Union expected to follow suit. The US isn’t far behind. Current population growth is primarily taking place in developing countries that urgently need to either provide for their young citizens or facilitate their migration abroad. In 2023, the number of babies born in youth-heavy India (23.2 million) surpassed the total population of Florida (22.9 million). Projections indicate that by 2030, one in every five working-age individuals worldwide will be Indian. Moreover, Nigeria’s 7.5 million births in 2023 outstripped the total for all of Europe and doubled US births. Historically, migration has served as a remedy for disparities in population and economic progression. Yet, rising geopolitical tensions, coupled with policies from leaders like US President Donald Trump, hinder new migrations while also targeting existing migrants for deportation.

Ultimately, despite these broader trends, it’s individuals who navigate challenges and make decisions that tell the fuller economic narrative. Consequently, Bloomberg News reporters from various global bureaus engaged with individuals facing these realities. —Shawn Donnan

Trained in Southern California, employed in Suzhou

Xinyu Zhu has been passionate about math and science since childhood. He ranked in the top 2% of test-takers in Anhui province during China’s highly competitive Gaokao college entrance exams, securing a place at a prestigious Shanghai university for engineering, later pursuing graduate studies in the US.

Currently, Zhu is utilizing his talents to write code for a humanoid robot named “Little Wheat,” which stands 5 feet 7 inches tall. At MagicLab, a startup in Suzhou—a quick 30-minute train trip from Shanghai—he collaborates with over 200 colleagues. Zhu attributes his interest in robotics to his Vietnamese-born professor at the University of Southern California, where he earned a master’s degree in mechanical engineering. In an alternate reality, the 27-year-old might be preparing for his Ph.D. dissertation at a US institution.

While studying in California during 2020 and 2021, Zhu initially aimed to complete his doctorate in the US and establish his career there. However, escalating difficulties regarding US visa acquisition prompted him to seek opportunities within China’s intelligent robotics sector. “China has numerous leading companies, coupled with familiarity and proximity to home,” Zhu notes. “This rapidly evolving industry presents a unique challenge: staying ahead of constant changes.”

For years, Chinese students like Zhu viewed a US education as a ticket to study under prominent scholars and enhance their career prospects at home or abroad. From 2009 to 2022, China consistently topped the charts as the primary source of international students in the US. According to statistics from the Institute of International Education, roughly half of these students pursue studies in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.

However, conditions for Chinese students have become less welcoming. Tensions surfaced during Trump’s administration, leading to policies restricting Chinese students engaged in research perceived to benefit Beijing’s military strategy. Pandemic-related travel limitations further curtailed the influx of Chinese students into the US. In 2022, India overtook China as the leading country sending international students to American universities. Although Trump eventually eased plans to revoke the visas of Chinese scholars in critical disciplines amid a tentative trade truce, uncertainties persist. This environment may prompt more students and researchers to follow Zhu’s lead and return home. —Lucille Liu

Where a degree isn’t enough

Barnabas Ajiji has faced significant challenges in finding jobs matching his qualifications in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital. The eldest of four children from Plateau State, he graduated from the University of Jos four years ago with a degree in special education for hearing disabilities. However, limited white-collar job opportunities forced him to pursue aluminium fabrication, a skill learned during part-time work after high school. “Witnessing graduates without work inspired me to formulate a Plan B,” he recalls. “Now, what was once a backup plan has become my primary focus. It’s my livelihood.”

Affectionately known as Barry on the job, he embodies the realities of Nigeria’s economy, where 93% of workers are employed in the informal sector, often holding low-skilled jobs alongside side gigs. In partnership with a friend, he manufactures aluminium doors, windows, and glass shower cubicles from a small kiosk in the Lugbe district. Numerous craftsmen, including welders, carpenters, masons, and bricklayers, have also established businesses along the expressway, offering services to builders.

While national statistics claim youth unemployment is a mere 6.5%, this hides the fact that 85% of young people are self-employed in informal sectors, like Ajiji. Successive governments have failed to prioritize basic education, leaving millions out of school. Many young, educated Nigerians are emigrating en masse for job opportunities in the UK, US, Canada, and beyond, a trend referred to locally as japa—“to flee.” For those lacking the means to migrate internationally, internal migration to cities like Abuja and Lagos becomes the next best alternative.

Yet, housing, transportation, and healthcare in these metropolitan areas are unable to meet demand. Abuja, envisioned as a modern capital in the 1980s, lacks a solid industrial foundation. Additionally, currency devaluation has made emigration increasingly costly, but Ajiji still holds aspirations of moving abroad one day, both to work and continue his education.

In India, the world’s most populous nation, fostering skilled worker emigration has become integral to the government’s strategy. Advocating for smoother professional mobility has been a crucial aspect of Delhi’s trade negotiations with countries like the UK and Australia. In 2022, approximately 13 million Indians, spanning various sectors, were working overseas, with over 760,000 traveling abroad for studies. Indians abroad sent back $125 billion to their home country in the last fiscal year. While India’s economy is expanding rapidly, it must create around 115 million jobs by the decade’s end to keep pace with its population growth, as reported by investment bank Natixis. Migration serves to alleviate some of this pressure.

Nistha Tripathi dedicated nearly ten years to the US, earning a computer science degree from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and subsequently working on Wall Street and with tech startups. After deciding to return to India in 2013, she established Scholar Strategy, a consulting firm in Gurugram that assists students aiming to follow her path to study and work in America.

She has successfully guided over 500 candidates through their applications to graduate schools. However, she observes the job market becoming increasingly challenging for her clients. “America’s push to enhance manufacturing for local job creation conflicts with the aspirations of foreign jobseekers,” Tripathi points out.

Moreover, the challenge extends beyond the US. Pranjal Andhare, 26, traveled to the UK to pursue a master’s degree in banking and finance at Queen Mary University of London, finishing in October. After four months of intense job searching and submitting over a hundred applications, she returned to India, feeling frustrated and disheartened. “I anticipated better opportunities, but the reality was starkly different from what I had perceived in India,” reflects Andhare, who is now working as a consultant for merchant banks in Nagpur, 500 miles from Mumbai.

UK companies have hesitated to hire applicants holding the two-year graduate visa that Andhare possessed, concerned it would expire before new hires are fully trained. Currently, the UK government is deliberating on narrowing the list of occupations eligible for skilled visas and potentially shortening the duration of graduate visas to 18 months. Similarly, Canada and Australia are enacting measures to limit international student visas following public backlash over escalating housing costs. Overall, Andhare estimates that only around 1 in 10 foreign students she knows were able to secure employment in the UK. —Nduka Orjinmo and Shruti Srivastava

Europe goes headhunting for scientists

On a warm summer evening in Marseille, dignitaries convene for a gathering atop the Mucem, a civilisations museum offering breathtaking views of the Mediterranean coastal city. As champagne flows and a saxophonist meanders through the crowd, some notable guests of honor—US academics—appear somewhat uncomfortable. France is making a significant effort to attract American talent as the Trump administration diminishes grants, targets universities for cuts, and penalizes research into contentious areas such as gender and climate issues. Aix-Marseille Université, home to 80,000 students, is at the forefront with its Safe Place for Science initiative, which has earmarked €15 million ($17.3 million) to invite about 20 US-based academics for a three-year term. “In an unfortunate twist of fate, those among us from the US have sought refuge in France for the freedom to think and conduct research,” comments Eric Berton, the university president, addressing attendees. Together with former French President François Hollande—now a National Assembly lawmaker—Berton is drafting a bill to establish a unique status for scientists in France.

The prospective “scientific refugees” are remaining discreet. Many attendees at the Marseille event decisively decline to share their names, much less their previous affiliations with US universities, fearing repercussions for the students and colleagues they would leave behind. One US academic expresses her desire to keep her participation in the Safe Place for Science program under wraps until she successfully relocates her children.

France’s warm invitation to US researchers transcends mere academic philanthropy. European nations have long envied America’s scientific prowess and its ability to translate that into economic and industrial gains. Earlier in the year, the European Commission committed to a €500 million investment to enhance Europe’s research appeal, while the current French government announced an additional allocation of €100 million in funding. —William Horobin

Testing the waters in a new country

By mid-2024, approximately 8.6 million of Australia’s 27.2 million inhabitants will be born outside the country, making up 32% of the populace—around double the proportion in the US, traditionally considered an immigrant melting pot. For certain newcomers, embracing an Australian lifestyle includes learning to swim, a culture known for its outdoor activities, beach outings, and backyard barbecues.

Dinomila Sathiamoorthy, 30, relocated to Sydney from Tamil Nadu, India, five years ago. Although she always aspired to learn to swim, she had considered it too challenging until a pamphlet advertising free beginner classes arrived in her mailbox. “I’ve realized that swimming is an essential skill, and I’ve developed a newfound affection for water,” she shares.

Availability for swimming classes has become a scarce resource. In the suburb of Parramatta in Western Sydney—where 60% of residents are international arrivals—there’s only one public pool for every 134,573 residents. In the more affluent Mosman area, which comprises around two-thirds Australian-born inhabitants, there’s one pool for every 7,268 residents. Devika Shivadekar, 33, who works as an economist at an accounting firm, seeks swim lessons in Parramatta on weekends when classes are typically fully booked. “I can’t float, so I require a coach,” she laments, feeling deflated.

Martin Zaiter, the mayor of Parramatta, has stated that establishing free swimming lessons is a priority for public health. “Western Sydney faces unfortunately higher drowning rates compared to other regions in our state,” he explains.

Australia’s dependence on immigration to stimulate economic growth faces mounting scrutiny as productivity stagnates. Sydney consistently ranks among the world’s most expensive cities, prompting many locals to attribute rising housing costs to immigration, while others cite investment speculation and inadequate construction. Both major political parties pledged to reduce immigration ahead of the May elections. Projections indicate net overseas immigration will plummet to 335,000 this year, a sharp decline from the record 536,000 seen just a couple of years ago.

The rising cost of living is also impacting newcomers. International students, who constituted over a third of Australia’s net immigration last year, often find themselves in precarious situations, juggling gig economy jobs alongside their studies. Some have already decided to leave the country. In May, student departures reached a decade high, marking the highest visa exit rate since the pandemic began. “Life is becoming increasingly challenging for newer migrants,” reflects Shivadekar, who grew up in Mumbai and studied in the UK. “I’d love for my brother to join me in Sydney, but obtaining a visa has turned into a monumental challenge. I consider myself fortunate.” —Swati Pandey

© 2025 Bloomberg

Follow Moneyweb’s in-depth finance and business news on WhatsApp here.