Weather Anomaly in Paris Leads to $37K Victory on Polymarket
Two Polymarket accounts are currently under investigation after winning around $37,000 from weather prediction markets related to Paris temperatures.
Summary
- Two traders earned $37,000 following unexpected temperature spikes that impacted Paris weather markets on Polymarket.
- Bubblemaps identified one account that made profitable trades before the April 15 spike.
- Météo France has lodged a complaint amid reports of anomalies in temperature readings at the airport that may suggest tampering.
The contracts relied on the highest temperatures recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport on April 6 and April 15.
On both occasions, market outcomes hinged on brief surges in temperature readings. French media outlet BFMTV reported that the temperature at the station exceeded 21 degrees Celsius on April 6, only to drop again shortly after. This resulted in a winning market position claiming over $16,000.
Second spike attracted further scrutiny from blockchain analysts
A similar trend was noted in the April 15 market. Bubblemaps stated that temperatures hovered around 18 degrees Celsius for most of the day, then briefly peaked at 22 degrees Celsius before declining again. This fluctuation influenced the market outcome and raised concerns regarding the validity of the data source.
Bubblemaps reported that one trader purchased NO shares on “18°C” just before the spike and later sold them for a profit exceeding $21,000. The analytics firm also pointed out that this dramatic increase was not observed at nearby stations, intensifying scrutiny on the timing of the trades and the registered temperatures.
Meteorologist questions the natural occurrence of the fluctuations
Ruben Hallali, a meteorologist, told BFMTV that the sudden temperature changes did not appear to be typical weather behavior. He indicated that the rapid shifts in readings were challenging to attribute solely to natural weather phenomena.
“Such temperature variations seem highly improbable, especially on these two dates, and within such a brief timeframe,” Hallali commented. “It is plausible that someone with a deep understanding of the sensor workings intervened, causing temperatures to spike by two degrees at just the right moment to validate a wager.”
Additionally, Météo France, the nation’s official weather agency, has reportedly filed a complaint with the Roissy Air Transport Gendarmerie Brigade, alleging interference with its automated data processing linked to the weather station’s readings.