Eskom Assures No Load-Shedding This Winter – Grid Remains Stable

Johannesburg – Eskom announces that the power utility is gearing up for the 2026 winter season with a robust power system, forecasting a winter of sustained energy stability from 1 April to 31 August 2026.

This optimistic perspective emerges after a successful summer period, where the national grid operated with ongoing reliability.

With the Generation Recovery Plan now integrated into daily operations, Eskom has transitioned from short-term recovery to a phase of stability and ongoing energy security, ensuring homes, businesses, and industries remain powered throughout the peak winter months.

This stability is highlighted by Eskom’s consistent energy supply of 98.9% during the last Financial Year (1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026), a significant improvement from just 9% two years prior, reflecting a fundamental enhancement in generation performance, operational discipline, and system resilience.

“Eskom, and consequently South Africa, now benefits from a stable electricity platform for growth,” stated Eskom’s Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane.

“This allows us to incorporate renewable energy sources as outlined in the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to safeguard future energy security.”

“Eskom is actively evaluating the new capacity build rate across all necessary technologies, as this, along with other socio-economic factors, will be crucial in managing the transition of coal-fired power stations.”

The winter outlook indicates enhanced reliability and availability across the generation fleet.

Additional capacity has been secured primarily through a 5.2GW reduction in unplanned losses, along with 1.1GW from demand-side management programs, enabling Eskom to meet national demand this winter.

Based on this, Eskom anticipates a surplus peak capacity of about 6GW during the winter period.

These enhancements have allowed Eskom to lower its base-case assumption for unplanned outages to approximately 12GW, down from 13GW in the previous winter outlook.

Even under higher-stress conditions, where unplanned losses could reach 14GW, the system is expected to remain resilient, with no loadshedding anticipated in the scenarios being prepared by Eskom.

This Winter 2026 Outlook considers Eskom’s increased customer base.

During FY2026, Eskom completed 67,578 new household connections, and a further 2,119 households were supplied through distributed energy resources (DERs), which alleviate pressure on the national grid, especially during peak times.

Despite supplying electricity to these additional customers compared to the previous winter, improved generation reliability, reduced unplanned losses, and strengthened operational buffers support a stable winter outlook with ample capacity to meet expected demand.

“It was challenging to enforce cost savings while our generation fleet was unstable,” stated Eskom’s Group Executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo.

“Today, we have significantly reduced diesel dependence, saving R26.9 billion compared to FY2023.”

“These savings are attributed to improved maintenance discipline and project execution.”

Nxumalo emphasized that every megawatt returned by Eskom contributes to economic growth.

“The restoration of a reliable baseload electricity supply has put Eskom in a position to assist distressed industries, particularly the ferrochrome sector, and play a crucial role in mitigating job losses,” Nxumalo added.

“The nation has invested in Eskom, and we are actively working to restore this national asset to its full potential; it is a resource supported by all citizens.”

Sustained performance improvements since March 2023

The stability achieved is a direct result of the Generation Recovery Plan, which has shown consistent, year-on-year improvements in system performance since March 2023, including:

• Diesel expenditure reduced by R26.9 billion: A decrease in reliance on open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) emergency power sources has resulted in an FY2026 diesel expenditure of approximately R6.4 billion, which is R26.9 billion lower than FY2023, and about R10 billion less compared to FY2025.
• Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improved by approximately 10.8%: The EAF improved from 54.55% in FY2023 to around 65.35% in FY2026, marking a gain of approximately 10.8%, indicative of stronger generation reliability and system stability. The EAF reached or exceeded 70% on over 83 occasions during FY26.
• Unplanned losses, reduced by around 7.1GW: The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) measuring unplanned losses decreased by around 7.1GW, dropping from 16.5GW to approximately 9.1GW as of 31 March 2026, a reduction exceeding one-and-a-half times the capacity of Kusile Power Station.
• Planned maintenance increased, averaging 5.4GW: Planned maintenance rose from an average of 4.7GW in FY2023 to peaks around 8.0GW, with an annual average of 5.4GW in FY2026, enhancing long-term plant reliability while temporarily reducing available capacity.

Collectively, these improvements have supported a record, as of today, of 341 consecutive days without loadshedding.

Financial, Governance, and Institutional Strengthening

Ongoing operational improvements and financial discipline led to Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings upgrading Eskom’s credit rating for the first time in over a decade.

Eskom also noted a 2.1% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profit and a 1.6% improvement in EBITDA for FY2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and cost discipline (pending final audit confirmation).

Eskom’s Board has been reformed with skilled professionals, combining continuity with strengthened technical, financial, and governance expertise.

The utility was also certified as a Top Employer for the second consecutive year, showcasing Eskom’s commitment to employee development, capability building, and organizational stability.

Energy security decisions and the path ahead

Since the last Power System Outlook on 5 September 2025, the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 was released on 28 October 2025 by the Minister of Electricity and Energy, providing updated guidance on the optimal electricity supply mix and the timing of new generation capacity.

In accordance with this policy framework, Eskom’s approach remains consistent, applying a rigorous and evidence-based assessment to determine the timely delivery of planned new generation capacity.

This is intended to facilitate the orderly shutdown, repowering, and repurposing of the five older coal-fired power stations while aligning with security of supply and just energy transition considerations. Eskom is expected to finalize this decision around Quarter 2 FY2027 (between 1 July 2026 and 30 September 2026).

This will ensure the security of supply is maintained, the gains achieved to date are preserved, and the vital capacity for supporting economic growth is safeguarded to facilitate long-term investment decisions.

Any delays in delivering new capacity pose a significant risk to supply adequacy between 2029 and 2030, as confirmed by the Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2025 conducted by the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA).

Eskom also acknowledges that since the IRP2019, only about 50% of the awarded renewable projects with grid allocation and power purchase agreements have been constructed, underscoring the necessity for stronger coordination to maintain energy security while meeting emissions reduction goals.

By 2030, the new capacity needed requires a collective delivery by Eskom and Independent Power Producers (IPPs) of around 10.3GW of Solar PV, 7.4GW of Wind, 3.7GW of energy storage, and 6GW of Gas to ensure energy security.

Dispatchable capacity, particularly baseload gas-to-power available continuously, remains essential for the large-scale integration of renewable energy and the overall reliability of the system and network.

As a responsible and efficient system operator, Eskom will continue to operate, maintain, and protect the five coal-fired power stations until new generation capacity is securely contracted and demonstrably available.

Eskom remains committed to achieving its Climate Investment Funds target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 71 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2025 and 2030, pending final confirmation.

Managing the Transition to Net Zero

Eskom has consistently emphasized that the journey to net zero is complex and must be driven by technology.

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 includes provisions for a clean-coal technologies demonstration plant to be developed by 2030.

In line with this policy stance, Eskom, in partnership with key research and industry stakeholders, aims to create a High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions (HELE) demonstration plant to assess cost-effectiveness while supporting the responsible and transitional use of coal.

Eskom is adopting a portfolio-based approach to emissions reduction, with its research and development division reporting promising progress in direct sorbent injection (DSI) trials and ammonia co-firing.

These technologies present potentially lower-cost emissions reduction pathways compared to traditional flue gas desulphurization while maintaining system reliability and energy supply security.

Progress in Phasing Out Load Reduction at the Community Level

To build upon the current momentum of the phased national program, Eskom stated that it is working closely with the Department of Electricity and Energy (DEE) and other relevant stakeholders to expedite the elimination of load reduction.

This program has already shown results, with the Northern Cape and Western Cape fully removed from load reduction schedules.

Nationwide, over 340,000 customers who previously faced load reductions are no longer subject to them, ensuring uninterrupted supply during the winter months.

A critical aspect of the program is the installation of over 600,000 smart meters, which enhance network visibility, improve load management, and stabilize local electricity networks.

Moreover, 2,119 customers have been connected through distributed energy resources (DER) to fortify electricity supply in regions where network limitations had previously caused load reduction.

By September 2026, Eskom anticipates that around 60% of feeders currently impacted by load reduction—573 out of 971—will be removed from these schedules, with the remaining feeders being progressively addressed by 2027.

*This article was first published in our sister publication techfinancials.co.za